ZTO Express (Cayman) (MEX:ZTO N) Cyclically Adjusted FCF per Share: MXN25.05 (As of Mar. 2026)

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MEX:ZTO N ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc MEX:ZTO N
88 GF Score
Price MXN426.00
GF Value MXN503.65
! 3 Warning Signs
View Full Analysis

What is ZTO Express (Cayman) Cyclically Adjusted FCF per Share?

ZTO Express (Cayman) MEX:ZTO N 88 Cyclically Adjusted FCF per Share is MXN25.05 as of Mar. 2026. GuruFocus rates MEX:ZTO N with a GF Score™ of 88/100 and a GF Value™ of MXN503.65. The stock has 3 warning signs investors should review.

E10 is a concept invented by Prof. Robert Shiller, who uses E10 for his Shiller PE Ratio calculation. E10 is the average of the inflation adjusted earnings of a company over the past 10 years. The similar calculation is applied by GuruFocus to calculate the Cyclically Adjusted FCF per Share and the Cyclically Adjusted Price-to-FCF. The Cyclically Adjusted FCF per Share is the average of the inflation adjusted Free Cash Flow per Share of a company over the past 10 years.

ZTO Express (Cayman)'s adjusted free cash flow per share for the three months ended in Mar. 2026 was MXN9.141. Add all the adjusted free cash flow per share for the past 10 years together and divide the count will get our Cyclically Adjusted FCF per Share, which is MXN25.05 for the trailing ten years ended in Mar. 2026.

During the past 12 months, ZTO Express (Cayman)'s average Cyclically Adjusted FCF Growth Rate was 11.30% per year. Please click Growth Rate Calculation Example (GuruFocus) to see how GuruFocus calculates Wal-Mart Stores Inc (WMT)'s revenue growth rate. You can apply the same method to get the Cyclically Adjusted FCF Growth Rate using Cyclically Adjusted FCF per Share data.

As of today (2026-07-14), ZTO Express (Cayman)'s current stock price is MXN426.00. ZTO Express (Cayman)'s Cyclically Adjusted FCF per Share for the quarter that ended in Mar. 2026 was MXN25.05. ZTO Express (Cayman)'s Cyclically Adjusted Price-to-FCF of today is 17.01.

During the past 12 years, the highest Cyclically Adjusted Price-to-FCF of ZTO Express (Cayman) was 17.69. The lowest was 12.74. And the median was 14.97.


ZTO Express (Cayman)  (MEX:ZTO N) Cyclically Adjusted FCF per Share Explanation

If a company grows much fast than inflation, Cyclically Adjusted FCF per Share may underestimate the company's free cash flow. Cyclically Adjusted Price-to-FCF can seem to be too high even the actual Price-to-Free-Cash-Flow is low.

For the Cyclically Adjusted Price-to-FCF, the free cash flow per share of the past 10 years are inflation-adjusted and averaged. The result is used for P/FCF calculation. Since it looks at the average over the last 10 years, the Cyclically Adjusted Price-to-FCF is also called CAPFCF Ratio.

The Shiller PE Ratio was first used by professor Robert Shiller. He uses E10 for his Shiller PE Ratio calculation. E10 is the average of the inflation adjusted earnings per share of a company over the past 10 years. The similar calculation is applied by GuruFocus to calculate the Cyclically Adjusted Price-to-FCF. The Cyclically Adjusted FCF per Share is the average of the inflation adjusted free cash flow per share of a company over the past 10 years.

ZTO Express (Cayman)'s Cyclically Adjusted Price-to-FCF of today is calculated as

Cyclically Adjusted Price-to-FCF=Share Price/Cyclically Adjusted FCF per Share
=426.00/25.05
=17.01

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.

During the past 12 years, the highest Cyclically Adjusted Price-to-FCF of ZTO Express (Cayman) was 17.69. The lowest was 12.74. And the median was 14.97.


Be Aware

Cyclically Adjusted Price-to-FCF works better for cyclical companies. It gives you a better idea on the company's real free cash flow value.


ZTO Express (Cayman) Cyclically Adjusted FCF per Share Related Terms


ZTO Express (Cayman) Cyclically Adjusted FCF per Share Historical Data

* Premium members only.

The historical data trend for ZTO Express (Cayman)'s Cyclically Adjusted FCF per Share can be seen below:

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.

ZTO Express (Cayman) Cyclically Adjusted FCF per Share Chart

ZTO Express (Cayman) Annual Data
Trend Dec16 Dec17 Dec18 Dec19 Dec20 Dec21 Dec22 Dec23 Dec24 Dec25
Cyclically Adjusted FCF per Share
Get a 7-Day Free Trial Premium Member Only Premium Member Only 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 24.71

ZTO Express (Cayman) Quarterly Data
Jun21 Sep21 Dec21 Mar22 Jun22 Sep22 Dec22 Mar23 Jun23 Sep23 Dec23 Mar24 Jun24 Sep24 Dec24 Mar25 Jun25 Sep25 Dec25 Mar26
Cyclically Adjusted FCF per Share Get a 7-Day Free Trial Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only 27.05 25.29 25.16 24.71 25.05

MEX:ZTO N vs EXPD, CHRW, FDXF: Cyclically Adjusted FCF per Share Comparison

For the Integrated Freight & Logistics subindustry, ZTO Express (Cayman)'s Cyclically Adjusted Price-to-FCF, along with its competitors' market caps and Cyclically Adjusted Price-to-FCF data, can be viewed below:

* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.


ZTO Express (Cayman) Cyclically Adjusted Price-to-FCF vs Transportation Industry

For the Transportation industry and Industrials sector, ZTO Express (Cayman)'s Cyclically Adjusted Price-to-FCF distribution charts can be found below:

* The bar in red indicates where ZTO Express (Cayman)'s Cyclically Adjusted Price-to-FCF falls into.


MEX:ZTO N
88GF Score
ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc MEX:ZTO N
Cyclically Adjusted FCF per Share is just one metric. See GF Score™, valuation, warning signs, and more.
View Full Analysis

ZTO Express (Cayman) Cyclically Adjusted FCF per Share Calculation

E10 is a concept invented by Prof. Robert Shiller, who uses E10 for his Shiller PE Ratio calculation. E10 is the average of the inflation adjusted earnings of a company over the past 10 years. The similar calculation is applied by GuruFocus to calculate the Cyclically Adjusted FCF per Share and the Cyclically Adjusted Price-to-FCF. The Cyclically Adjusted FCF per Share is the average of the inflation adjusted Free Cash Flow per Share of a company over the past 10 years.

What is Cyclically Adjusted FCF per Share? How do we calculate Cyclically Adjusted FCF per Share?

Cyclically Adjusted FCF per Share is the average of the inflation adjusted Free Cash Flow per Share of a company over the past 10 years. Let's use an example to explain.

If we want to calculate the Cyclically Adjusted FCF per Share of Wal-Mart (WMT) for Dec. 31, 2010, we need to have the inflation data and the free cash flow per share from 2001 through 2010.

We adjusted the 2001 free cash flow per share data with the total inflation from 2001 through 2010 to the equivalent free cash flow in 2010. If the total inflation from 2001 to 2010 is 40%, and Wal-Mart's free cash flow is $1 a share in 2001, then the 2001's equivalent free cash flow in 2010 is $1.4 a share. If Wal-Mart's free cash flow is $1 again in 2002, and the total inflation from 2002 through 2010 is 35%, then the equivalent 2002 free cash flow in 2010 is $1.35. So on and so forth, you get the equivalent free cash flow per share of past 10 years. Then you add them together and divided the sum by the count to get Cyclically Adjusted FCF per Share.

Please note that we use the CPI data of the country/region where the company is headquartered. If the CPI data for that country/region is not available, then we will use the CPI data of the United States as default.

For example, ZTO Express (Cayman)'s adjusted Free Cash Flow per Share data for the three months ended in Mar. 2026 was:

Adj_FreeCashFlowPerShare= Free Cash Flow per Share /CPI of Mar. 2026 (Change)*Current CPI (Mar. 2026)
=9.141/116.3033*116.3033
=9.141

Current CPI (Mar. 2026) = 116.3033.

ZTO Express (Cayman) Quarterly Data

Free Cash Flow per Share CPI Adj_FreeCashFlowPerShare
201606 1.264 101.400 1.450
201609 3.970 102.400 4.509
201612 4.893 102.600 5.547
201703 1.255 103.200 1.414
201706 3.332 103.100 3.759
201709 3.950 104.100 4.413
201712 5.732 104.500 6.379
201803 0.866 105.300 0.956
201806 6.212 104.900 6.887
201809 3.157 106.600 3.444
201812 6.521 106.500 7.121
201903 2.328 107.700 2.514
201906 7.057 107.700 7.621
201909 5.029 109.800 5.327
201912 7.769 111.200 8.126
202003 0.759 112.300 0.786
202006 5.207 110.400 5.485
202009 6.118 111.700 6.370
202012 7.448 111.500 7.769
202103 1.807 112.662 1.865
202106 7.239 111.769 7.533
202109 6.972 112.215 7.226
202112 12.048 113.108 12.388
202203 4.290 114.335 4.364
202206 14.030 114.558 14.244
202209 9.854 115.339 9.936
202212 12.528 115.116 12.657
202303 8.521 115.116 8.609
202306 10.718 114.558 10.881
202309 8.366 115.339 8.436
202312 11.139 114.781 11.287
202403 5.598 115.227 5.650
202406 10.466 114.781 10.605
202409 10.332 115.785 10.378
202412 9.605 114.893 9.723
202503 8.015 115.116 8.098
202506 6.817 114.907 6.900
202509 10.053 115.471 10.125
202512 13.631 115.832 13.686
202603 9.141 116.303 9.141

Add all the adjusted free cash flow per share together and divide 10 will get our Cyclically Adjusted FCF per Share.

What does a Cyclically Adjusted FCF per Share of MXN25.05 mean?
ZTO Express (Cayman) (MEX:ZTO N) has a Cyclically Adjusted FCF per Share of MXN25.05 as of Mar. 2026. Cyclically Adjusted FCF per Share represents the company's inflation-adjusted FCF per share over a 10-year period. View historical data on ZTO Express (Cayman) and its competitors.
Is ZTO Express (Cayman)'s Cyclically Adjusted FCF per Share too high?
ZTO Express (Cayman)'s current Cyclically Adjusted FCF per Share is MXN25.05. Overall, ZTO Express (Cayman) has a GF Score™ of 88/100, reflecting its overall financial health beyond just this single metric.
How does ZTO Express (Cayman)'s Cyclically Adjusted FCF per Share compare to EXPD and CHRW?
ZTO Express (Cayman)'s Cyclically Adjusted FCF per Share of MXN25.05 can be compared against companies in the Transportation industry. See the competitive comparison table and distribution chart on this page for a detailed peer-by-peer breakdown.
What is a good Cyclically Adjusted FCF per Share for a Transportation company?
A good Cyclically Adjusted FCF per Share depends on the Transportation industry context. However, Cyclically Adjusted FCF per Share should not be evaluated in isolation — investors should consider it alongside profitability, growth, and financial strength metrics. Use the industry distribution chart on this page to see where any company falls relative to its peers.
What does a high Cyclically Adjusted FCF per Share mean?
A high Cyclically Adjusted FCF per Share can signal that a stock is expensive relative to its fundamentals. Cyclically Adjusted FCF per Share represents the company's inflation-adjusted FCF per share over a 10-year period. View historical data on ZTO Express (Cayman) and its competitors. ZTO Express (Cayman)'s current Cyclically Adjusted FCF per Share is MXN25.05. However, context matters — high-growth companies often justify higher valuations. Always evaluate alongside other metrics like GF Score™ and GF Value™.
Is ZTO Express (Cayman) stock overvalued right now?
ZTO Express (Cayman) (MEX:ZTO N) has a current Cyclically Adjusted FCF per Share of MXN25.05. The stock's GF Value™ is MXN503.65, compared to a current price of MXN426.00 — trading 15.4% below its estimated fair value. The current Cyclically Adjusted FCF per Share is MXN25.05. ZTO Express (Cayman)'s overall GF Score™ is 88/100 with 3 warning signs to review. Investors should evaluate multiple metrics — including profitability, growth, and financial strength — before making a decision.
How is Cyclically Adjusted FCF per Share calculated?
Cyclically Adjusted FCF per Share is calculated from a company's financial statements. For ZTO Express (Cayman) (MEX:ZTO N), the current Cyclically Adjusted FCF per Share is MXN25.05 as of Mar. 2026. GuruFocus calculates this using data sourced from SEC filings and annual reports. See the calculation section and 30-year financial data on this page for the full breakdown.

Is ZTO Express (Cayman) (MEX:ZTO N) Overvalued in 2026?

Based on GuruFocus' analysis, ZTO Express (Cayman) stock appears to be undervalued. The current stock price of MXN426.00 is trading 15.4% below its estimated GF Value™ of MXN503.65.

Key valuation signals for MEX:ZTO N:

  • Cyclically Adjusted FCF per Share: MXN25.05
  • GF Value™: MXN503.65 vs. price of MXN426.00 (15.4% below fair value)
  • GF Score™: 88/100 with 3 warning signs

No single metric tells the full story. See the MEX:ZTO N stock analysis page for a complete view including 30-year financials, guru trades, and insider activity.


ZTO Express (Cayman) Business Description

Address No. 1685 Huazhi Road, Building One, Qingpu District, Shanghai, CHN, 201708
ZTO Express is China's largest express delivery company by parcel volume, with a volume share of 19.4% in 2024. It operates a network partner model where it provides line-haul transportation and sorting services, while its local network partners provide first-mile pickup and last-mile delivery services under the ZTO brand name. Headquartered in Shanghai, the company was founded in 2002 by Meisong Lai, who remains chair, CEO, and its major shareholder with 78% voting rights as of March 31, 2025. ZTO's strategic shareholder is leading China e-commerce company Alibaba Group with around an 8.9% interest.
88GF Score

Get the complete analysis for MEX:ZTO N

Cyclically Adjusted FCF per Share is just one metric. See GF Value™, 30-year financials, guru trades, warning signs, and more.

MXN426.00
Price
MXN503.65
GF Value